The American Banker had an interesting article the other day (paid subscription required) about the private investors who the FDIC and other federal bank regulators are attempting to entice into making investments in banks and thrifts in need of cold, hard capital. According to a number of experts cited by reporter Kevin Dobbs, many private equity investors prefer to wait to invest in bank assets as they're shed by banks in trouble or by the FDIC after the banks fail (and perhaps, from the "ginormous" National Bad Bank of America to be run by Sheila Bair and the Dancing Bears, if that ungainly vulture vehicle ever gets airborne).
The two big reasons: regulatory scrutiny and the fact that bank assets continue to fall in value.
"I think ultimately you'll see more private-equity money going toward simply buying bank assets, not the whole bank," said Roger Lister, the chief credit officer of DBRS Ltd.'s financial institutions group.
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"It's complex, it's regulated, and it's inherently levered, so traditional private-equity firms cannot lever their investment," Richard E. Thornburgh, vice chairman of Corsair, said in an interview last week.
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Observers said how soon and how deeply private-equity investors jump into bank assets will depend not just on whether they believe the market for such investments has hit bottom, but also on regulators' attitudes.
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Gary Townsend, the chief executive officer of Hill-Townsend Capital LLC, said he does not see a bottom yet, though the fact that private equity players bought into an operation as deeply troubled as IndyMac with the intention of rebuilding could indicate the investors expect a bottoming out by yearend.
[...]Michael Blumenthal, a partner at the law firm Crowell & Moring LLP and an expert on the distressed loan market, said there is substantial demand among private-equity investors, though they are still looking strictly for steep discounts.
"The reason that there wasn't a lot of this flow last year was because the institutions weren't willing to sell at rational prices," he said in an interview last week.
Not all observers are discouraged about the interest of investors in entire financial institutions, however.
"There will be more and more money going after banks," Jim Gardner, co-founder and chairman of Commerce Street Capital LLC, said in an interview this month.
Though he stopped short of calling an outright bottom on bank assets, he said that could happen this year, and therefore "it's no longer too early to invest in banks."
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"There are literally trillions of dollars in private-equity money sitting out there waiting to be deployed," Mr. Townsend said in an interview this month. "And the interest in IndyMac is a good sign that some of that money will get put into banks."
From the narrow window of my cell in the far corner of the bargain basement of the world of financial institutions, I've seen plenty of interest by private equity in financial institutions themselves. Some investors are already invested in an institution that has been forced to take hits to its capital, and to salvage what they've already poured in, they are willing to bring more to the table. Most of them are savvy enough to realize that a well-capitalized bank will be a perfect vehicle to feast on the carcasses of their insolvent brothers and sisters. Obviously, they risk throwing good money after bad, if the Obama Administration's "Change We Can Believe In" turns out to be a false hope. At that point, as one investor put it to me, "the last thing I'll be worrying about is my lost investment in this bank. I'll be more worried about having enough gas for my generator and ammunition for my AR-15."
A second segment of interested investors in whole financial institutions appears to be waiting for the second coming of The Southwest Plan. The US government might become so cash-deprived and desperate that it resorts to filling the hole of insolvency with FDIC notes, and provides more aggressive forms of asset loss coverage than we've seen to date, and, perhaps, even "yield maintenance" on "covered assets." However, waiting for that will likely leave you out in the cold, because no matter how slim the pickings of private investors might eventually become, I think that from a political standpoint, that dog won't hunt. Ever.
Of course, that's just my opinion. I could be wrong.
A third group of potential bank investors seems to be channeling the spirit of Gerald Ford (the living Texas investor, not the dead President), and is considering obtaining a "shelf charter" from the OCC, securing approval to be placed on the FDIC's bidder's list, and then waiting to dump in capital only if it becomes the winning bidder for an FDIC-assisted acquisition of an insolvent thrift or bank. That's a relatively safe way of posturing yourself, but the downside is that Mr. Ford's group has thus far been outbid on two acquisitions by other bidders. You may end up going home from the dance holding onto nothing but your good intentions, which might make you feel good about yourself, but won't keep you warm in bed at night. While you're waiting for the right bank or thrift to pop up, others are busy scooping up branches, deposits and assets not only from the FDIC, but from still-solvent institutions looking to offload assets and liabilities.
Yet another group of potential investors plans to buy a bank or thrift of various profiles, sometimes a small shop, sometimes a larger one, at an attractive price, then grow the purchased institution, taking advantage of deposit and asset purchase opportunities that present themselves as the banking business contracts. The downside of this approach is that the FDIC (and some of the other regulators) are not keen on rapid growth, and certainly not on rapid growth through expensive and/or what they view to be "unstable" funding sources like brokered deposits or a "money desk." I've heard a very recent tale of woe of a group with just such a plan who couldn't satisfy the FDIC to approve such a plan regardless of the core capital ratio that the bank maintained. Trying to grow quickly through "core deposits" is nearly (or actually) impossible to do when every Tom, Dick, and JPMorgan Chase is chasing after them, although there will be opportunities to acquire them as more banks fail (whether the deposit premiums will be reasonable is another story).
I'm certain there are other groups of investors who have other specific types of plans to buy a bank in this "interesting time," in order to fulfill a master plan for creating wealth beyond all dreams of avarice. We'll likely see them unfold once the US Government stops diddling around, settles down on a plan (or two or three), and sticks with it (or them). The current difficulty for private equity is that, while its willing to take risks with its capital, it wants to be convinced that the folks in charge aren't suffering from "The Mad Cow." Thus far, nothing they've seen since last September gives them much confidence that all is well and settled in D.C. Once the rules of the game are set, the players who want to play that game will enter it. Until then, assets pose less of a risk than whole institutions.