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A recent White Paper from the consulting firm Invictus discusses what those of us who represent community banks have been aware of for some time now: the requirements for "stress tests" that were supposed to apply only to those "Too Big To Fail" banks are "trickling down" to community banks. The buzzwords that apply to banks both large and small are "forward-looking risk analytics." While Invictus notes that bank regulators initially publicly stated that stress testing was only for the Big Guys, their actions belied their words (or, they simply changed their minds).
Regulatory actions in the waning months of 2015 should serve as notice that ignoring forward-looking analytics will lead to lower CAMELS scores, more examiner scrutiny and higher regulatory capital requirements. The new current expected credit loss model (CECL), which is expected early in 2016, is also a forward-looking tool.
Behind the scenes, however, regulators began changing their own methods for examining community banks, relying more and more on forward-looking analytics. In recent months, with signs that community banks are again accumulating higher concentrations of risky commercial real estate loans, regulators are reminding community banks that stress testing is indeed required to manage concentration risk in their portfolios and to develop realistic scenarios for interest rate risk management.
Regulatory actions in the waning months of 2015 should serve as notice that ignoring forward-looking analytics will lead to lower CAMELS scores, more examiner scrutiny and higher regulatory capital requirements. The new current expected credit loss model (CECL), which is expected early in 2016, is also a forward-looking tool.
The large banks have already adopted forward-looking risk analytics and are using the results with regulators. Although community banks are not subjected to the same stress testing requirements as the large banks, the regulatory trend is in the same direction. Those community banks that fail to incorporate new analytics into their risk management systems will find it difficult to communicate effectively with regulators.
The White Paper traces recent public issuances by the FDIC, FRB, and OCC in this direction. A specific red flag is the December 2015 joint agency guidance on CRE concentrations. Those of us who represented community banks and their directors in the aftermath of the last meltdown, when commercial real estate brought a number of community banks to grief, took special note of that guidance. It's "guidance" in the same way vendor management guidance is merely "guidance." Try violating it and see how "sticky" the wicket gets. You'll be up to your eyeballs in MRAs on the your next report of examination...or worse.
Even if you thinkl your CRE isn't all that "concentrated," Invictus thinks that you ought to seriously consider hoping on this forward-looking train.
Even if your bank doesn’t have CRE concentrations, use forward-looking risk analytics to stress test your capital, your strategic plans and any potential acquisition you might be considering. Present the results to regulators. Invictus’ clients that have used stress testing results with examiners have seen their capital requirements decrease, their management piece of their CAMELS composite increase, and their strategic plans win fast regulatory approval.
At the very least, it's worth pausing for a moment and, while you stoop to smell the roses, thinking about whether you might benefit from this approach (if you haven't already adopted it).
