While I was out galavanting about the better part of three states over the past week, I received some eye-opening e-mail. A correspondent wrote to let me know that when it comes to dysfunctional regulators and self-fulfilling prophecies, community banks with their commercial restate woes aren't the only victims in the cross hairs. Banks that concentrate on agricultural lending are also in for their share of pain and suffering. I was so disturbed by the content, but pleased by the style, of the correspondence that I'll post it in full, minus personally identifying information of my correspondent (to spare him collateral damage that might flow from his candor).
The FDIC’s Kansas City Region hosted a teleconference on Wednesday, February 10, 2010. The topic for the teleconference was “Managing Concentration Risk.”
The speakers were: James LaPierre, Regional Director
Mark Moylan, Assistant Regional Director
Al McGregor, Supervisory Examiner
Rich Cofer, Regional Manager
The Regulatory Agencies have taken a lot of heat because they didn't get out in front of the Residential and Commercial Real Estate problems. They intend to be in front of the next one. And they think Ag may be it. So this teleconference was to discuss Agricultural-related concentrations and potential methods to reduce and manage these risks.
The Kansas City Region of the FDIC covers 7 states and holds nearly Two-Thirds of the nation's 1564 farm banks. (By the way, this is the group with the highest 2009 ROA and nearly the lowest noncurrent loans ratio as per the just released FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile for the 4th quarter, 2009).
They discussed the fact that Commercial Real Estate and C&D loans have grown sharply in the 10 years from 1997 to 2007. And that recent failed banks often have high exposure to these types of loans. No surprises here.
They then discussed that Ag credit concentrations during that same 10 year period has remained steady. However, the risks associated with Ag lending have been increasing. Present farmland prices exceed the two price booms of the 20th Century. And operating income and expenses are showing signs of risk. So reduce or limit concentrations in loans secured by farmland AND Ag production loans. In addition, in the Ag banks, Non-Ag loans have the highest past due rates, so limit those also. They also said Loan To Value ratios for farmland loans should be 50% or better to NOT be classified when values are at or near their highs.
Regarding our Ag customers, we should, "form an exit strategy" from those farmers who only cash flow under the best case scenario when shocked for prices, input costs and interest rates. In other words, they want us to stop making loans to a large portion of our farmers under the age of 45.
They also discussed the Allowance for Loan and Lease Losses. The reserve should be "directionally consistent" with the past due loans. If the past dues are increasing, so should the ALLL. And the reserve should cover 100% of non-accrual and noncurrent loans. If we are not at 100% then we are not adjusting our economic factors and historical periods appropriately. We may have to limit our historical perspective to only the past 6 months.
They also provided some guidance. They told all of the Ag banks to read the three Financial Institution Letters discussing Commercial Real Estate Loans and wherever you read Commercial Real Estate substitute Ag.
I would like you to listen to this teleconference. However, you will have to take my word for it. They did not record the call. Even though this was coming from the Regional Director and Assistant Regional Director of the FDIC, they did not want it to be interpreted as official FDIC policy, because only the Board of Directors of the FDIC can set policy.
Thank you sir, may I have another?
It's great to see the FDIC flying under the public's radar to carpet bomb agricultural lending in the same manner its been blowing up commercial real estate lending. "Lend more! Get the economy moving!" Those are the federal regulators' public statements designed to satisfy politicians and an ignorant populace. At the same time, they are privately doing everything possible to make such lending impossible, while, at the same time, ensuring that banks capital and earnings are depleted. Don't be surprised when ag banks start to drop like community banks that bulked up on CRE.
I wonder how much longer small bankers are going to just sit there and take it?