In a very revealing article in last Thursday's American Banker (paid subscription required), reporter Kevin Whack let's us know that the recently closed Small Business Lending Fund was a bust at helping most banks, and most of all, at helping those small community banks that are still sitting on a pile of TARP to exit that sorry state of affairs.
The SBLF generally offered a cheaper alternative to Tarp, but the banks that were able to take advantage are in the minority.
Out of at least 319 Tarp recipients that applied for SBLF funds, only 137 eventually received the money.
In addition to the banks whose applications were denied, other Tarp banks were discouraged from applying because the SBLF's rules made clear that they would not qualify.
As a result, the prospects for many small banks in Tarp, which already looked bleak when the SBLF began a year ago, seem even darker today.
At least 170 of them have missed two or more of the quarterly dividend payments they owe to the Treasury Department. Such payments are set to jump to 9% from their current rate of 5% in two more years.
Each bank's primary federal banking regulator had to approve them for SBLF capital, and it appears that the regulators were shooting down applicants faster than Dick Cheney can blow a shotgun load of buckshot into a lawyer's face.
Overall, more banks were rejected by the SBLF than were approved, according to Paul Merski, executive vice president and chief economist for the Independent Community Bankers of America. The available data suggests that the same trend holds for Tarp banks.
One commenter to the article alleges that the FDIC ought to be sliced and diced for nixing so many potential recipients of SBLF capital for fear they'd be too aggressive in their lending. I don't know why the FDIC and other federal regulators discouraged so many applicants, but if it was based on fear of "aggressive lending," that would be the kind of dysfunctional analysis would not exactly shock me.
As another commenter complains, "just $1.33 billion of the $30 billion SBLF fund was new money given to banks that will help the economy. Treasury only used 4.3% of the funds they could have used to help create jobs in the economy. Geithner needs to be fired for this." That's a legitimate complaint, but it misses the larger problems that $30 billion is too little, too late, and that without a robust economy creating robust borrowers, banks who received SBLF capital would be doing what banks who are still stuck in TARP are doing with such capital: sitting on it. To echo the old Clinton campaign mantra: "It's the economy, stupid."
Two observers cited toward the end of the article, Christy Romero, the acting inspector general for TARP and Neil Barofsky, the original IG for TARP, make a good point about what the end game might be for many of these small, privately owned banks who can't raise capital from other sources to pay off the TARP preferred stock, and are waiting for the dividend rate to escalate from 5% to 9% in a couple of years.
"I think they really need to be talking to these banks, and talking to the observers that they're sending, and determining how to give these small banks a clear exit path," Romero says.
She also notes that in some instances the Treasury has restructured its Tarp investments, taking a partial loss in order to avoid a total loss.
"So that same kind of consideration needs to go into, 'What's the ultimate strategy to get small banks out of Tarp?' " Romero says.
Barofsky predicts that as the eventual rise in Tarp's dividend rate approaches, the Treasury Department will agree to take partial losses on its investments in small banks as part of sales and merger deals.
"You're going to see mergers, you're going to see acquisitions," he says.
That conforms to our recent experience. In the right case, Treasury is willing to take a haircut, sometimes a substantial haircut, on its TARP investment in connection with an acquisition or recapitalization transaction. Realists understand that 20% of your investment is a lot better return than no return. Don't be surprised to more instances of this type of "exit strategy" being employed as 2013 looms closer and sellers become more "realistic" about what's a "market" price for their stock.